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| #724567 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 AM 15.Oct.2014) TCMAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1500 UTC WED OCT 15 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 68.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 135SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 68.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 67.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.6N 68.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.3N 68.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 28.6N 68.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.6N 66.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 40.6N 60.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 150SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 54.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 68.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
