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| #724984 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 17.Oct.2014) TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 Gonzalo appears to be slowly filling. Satellite imagery shows a net degradation in the organization of the cloud pattern over the last 6 to 12 hours, with somewhat warmer cloud top temperatures within the central dense overcast and some erosion of deep convection over the western semicircle of the circulation. Satellite data suggest also that current eyewall replacement is nearly complete, with the last vestiges of the inner eyewall dissipating within a larger 30 n mi diameter eye. The initial intensity has been lowered to 115 kt, which is just a bit above the latest ADT estimate of 110 kt. The next reconnaissance aircraft should arrive around 1200 UTC to better assess Gonzalo's intensity and structure. With Gonzalo encountering slowly increasing shear and over somewhat cooler waters, only gradual weakening is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours. Regardless, Gonzalo should remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes Bermuda later today. After 24 hours, a steady increase in south-southwesterly vertical wind shear and sharply lower sea surface temperatures should contribute to a markedly faster weakening. Gonzalo is likely to transition into a post-tropical cyclone by 48 hours and become extratropical in 60-72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is about halfway between the multi-model consensus and the SHIPS model through 24 hours and near the multi-model consensus after that time. The initial motion estimate is 025/13, slightly faster than before. Gonzalo should accelerate further on roughly the same heading during the next couple of days as the hurricane is swept up in the south-southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough currently over the eastern United States. A turn toward the east-northeast and east with an additional increase in forward speed is then forecast when Gonzalo nears Newfoundland in about 48 hours. The new NHC track forecast is along the previous one but a bit slower to account for a slower trend in much of the track model guidance. Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo continues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with Gonzalo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 29.3N 66.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 31.3N 65.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 34.5N 63.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 38.9N 60.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 44.5N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 20/0600Z 54.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0600Z 56.6N 6.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Brennan |
