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| #725091 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 17.Oct.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO VERY NEAR BERMUDA... ...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 65.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN A FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY ONCE GONZALO MOVES OVER COOL WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. BERMUDA AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 949 MB...28.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA VERY SOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
