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| #725092 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 17.Oct.2014) TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 Another reconnaissance plane has been in and around the eye of Gonzalo and found no significant change in the structure of the hurricane. Maximum flight-level winds were 124 kt, but the highest SFMR wind was 88 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is estimated to be 100 kt. The minimum central pressure remains around 949 mb. Although there has been a slight decrease in the surface winds, no significant change in intensity is expected before the eye crosses Bermuda in a few hours. Due to the large observed differential between the winds at the surface and aloft, a higher than normal gust factor has been used in this advisory. After Gonzalo passes Bermuda, increasing shear and cooler waters along the track of the hurricane should result in a faster weakening. Gonzalo is likely to transition into a post-tropical cyclone by 36 to 48 hours as it moves near or south of Newfoundland. This is the consensus of most of the global models. Aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving toward the north-northeast or 025 degrees at 14 kt. Gonzalo should accelerate and turn to the northeast once it becomes completely embedded within the faster southwesterly mid-latitude flow ahead of a deepening trough along the east coast of the United States. There has been no change in the guidance, and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous one. Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely. Although specific amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with Gonzalo. Given the proximity of this dangerous hurricane to Bermuda, NHC will provide hourly position updates until Gonzalo clears Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 31.7N 65.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 34.1N 63.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 38.7N 60.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 44.7N 54.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 50.5N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 56.5N 18.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
