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| #725327 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 18.Oct.2014) TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 After an earlier degradation of the convective cloud pattern, Gonzalo has made a recent comeback with the cloud shield having become more symmetrical and the eye a little better defined. The initial intensity of 80 kt is being maintained at 80 kt based on an 1443 UTC ASCAT-A overpass which showed a peak of 77 kt in the eastern quadrant and the improved satellite presentation. The same overpass also indicated that the 64-, 50-, and 34-kt wind radii had expanded, and this is indicated in the new initial wind radii. Gonzalo is accelerating rapidly northeastward and is now moving at a brisk 035/31 kt. The hurricane has become deeply embedded within the strong southwesterly flow on the east side of a high amplitude trough located over the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. Gonzalo is expected to move northeastward for the next 24 hours or so and then turn east-northeastward over the far north Atlantic on Day 2. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows the consensus model TVCA. The post-tropical portion of the track forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. As Gonzalo continues to gain latitude, the cyclone's wind field should continue to expand, accompanied by only slow weakening. Gonzalo will be moving over sub-20C SSTs by 12 hours and be under southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt, which is expected to result in transition to a strong post-tropical extratropical cyclone by 24 hours. Gradual weakening is expected after the transition occurs until dissipation occurs in about 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model through 24 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 39.3N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 44.0N 54.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 49.6N 45.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0600Z 52.5N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1800Z 55.5N 17.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
