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| #725441 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 19.Oct.2014) TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 A small CDO feature persists near the center of Gonzalo, although cloud tops have warmed a bit recently. The initial intensity has been nudged downward to 75 kt for this advisory, assuming some weakening now that the cyclone is moving over SSTs of less than 15 deg C. Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today and weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, post- tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain an intensity of 45 kt over the north Atlantic until the system dissipates shortly after 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is based on guidance from the global models and the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Gonzalo has accelerated over the past 6 hours and is now racing northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 040/45 knots. The global models are in good agreement on the cyclone accelerating east-northeastward over the north Atlantic during the next couple of days. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through dissipation and is near the latest guidance from OPC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 46.3N 52.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 50.1N 44.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/0600Z 53.4N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/1800Z 56.2N 15.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
