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| #7259 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 03.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OR EYEWALL OF FRANCES HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 959 MB. IN ADDITION...SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS. HOWEVER...FRANCES IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME...ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...FOR CHANGES IN THE INNER STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE TO OCCUR...WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY CALLS FOR A 100-KNOT HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. FRANCES IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FORCING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...BUT BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN ON ITS WAY TO FLORIDA. THIS COULD DELAY THE LANDFALL A FEW MORE HOURS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE HURRICANE OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BECAUSE FRANCES IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 25.5N 76.7W 100 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 26.3N 77.6W 100 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 27.0N 79.0W 100 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 27.5N 80.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/1200Z 33.5N 85.9W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 08/1200Z 38.0N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND |
