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| #7260 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 03.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004 THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES...AND CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT...ABOUT THE AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THERE IS MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH OF A HINDERANCE TO STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS A LITTLE FASTER... 260/16. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE STEERING PATTERN. IVAN IS EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS REGIME WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS. THE GFS AND GFDL TRACKS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 9.6N 32.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 9.7N 35.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 10.0N 38.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 10.3N 42.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 10.5N 45.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 11.5N 51.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 13.0N 57.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 14.5N 63.0W 90 KT |
