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| #726182 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 22.Oct.2014) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 Satellite images and data from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the depression has not strengthened since yesterday. The circulation remains well defined but the convection is not well organized, although new thunderstom activity is currently developing near the center. The cyclone continues to be affected by moderate westerly shear which should limit development. However, it is still expected to become a tropical storm before moving inland over the Yucatan peninsula where weakening is anticipated. If the depression emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in about 3 days, there is an opportunity for some strengthening. Most of the global models, primarily the GFS and the HWRF, forecast a favorable upper-level environment for the system to redevelop, if the the cyclone survives its path over land. On this basis, the NHC forecast now maintains tropical depression status through five days. Steering currents are weak, and the depression has been meandering during the past few hours. The cyclone is located at the base of a mid-level trough, and most likely the depression will drift eastward for the next 3 days while on the south side of the trough. Once in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the trough is forecast to lift out and a narrow ridge will develop to the north of the cyclone. This synoptic pattern should keep the cyclone with little motion in the northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the forecast period. However, the final portion of the NHC forecast continues to be highly uncertain, and is based on the blend of the GFS, ECMWF and HWRF model solutions. Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not directly related to the tropical depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 19.4N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 19.3N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 18.8N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 18.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1200Z 18.5N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.5N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 18.5N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
