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| #726242 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 22.Oct.2014) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN SO FAR... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 91.7W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CELESTUN TO FRONTERA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY THIS EVENING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
