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| #7412 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 04.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004 MIAMI WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS THAT FRANCES HAS DEVELOPED A LARGE EYE OF ABOUT 70 NMI IN DIAMETER. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND RECON SUGGESTS THAT AN EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING. HOWEVER...INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 90 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 12 TO 18 MORE HOURS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR MAY RELAX...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. RADAR AND RECON INDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KNOTS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH CONSISTENTLY HAS FORECAST THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. FRANCES HAS A LARGE EYE AND IS MOVING SLOWLY. THEREFORE...THOSE IN THE PATH OF THE CENTER WILL EXPERIENCE THE CALM OF THE EYE FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. IN ADDITION...THIS HURRICANE COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 26.9N 78.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 27.3N 79.5W 95 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 28.0N 81.2W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 06/0000Z 28.5N 83.0W 50 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 06/1200Z 29.5N 85.0W 60 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 07/1200Z 32.0N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 08/1200Z 34.5N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 09/1200Z 39.6N 86.5W 20 KT...INLAND |
