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| #7416 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:40 PM 04.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004 ...FRANCES HESITATES...EXPECTED TO RESUME ITS MOTION TOWARD FLORIDA LATER TODAY... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PENINSULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO JUST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO ST. MARKS. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...EAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA. DATA FROM RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST HOUR. HOWEVER THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. STRONG WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND WILL BE SPREADING INLAND...WHERE WARNINGS FOR HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT JUPITER INLET. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...26.9 N... 79.0 W. EXPECTED MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
