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| #7444 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 04.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004 MIAMI WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LARGE EYE ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST A TREND TOWARD INCREASED ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...RECON DATA INDICATE THAT BOTH MINIMUM PRESSURE AND WINDS HAVE REMAINED STEADY. INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 90 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR MAY RELAX...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. FRANCES HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND POUNDING GRAND BAHAMA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING OR MODEL GUIDANCE...FRANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 5 TO 6 KNOTS. ASSUMING THAT FRANCES DOES NOT HESITATE AGAIN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE CORE WILL REACH THE COAST SOON AND CONTINUE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTARD ACROSS FLORIDA. AFTER WEAKENING OVER LAND...FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS WHERE IT COULD RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE. SLOW MOVING FRANCES HAS A LARGE EYE. THEREFORE...THOSE IN THE PATH OF THE CENTER WILL EXPERIENCE THE CALM OF THE EYE FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. IN ADDITION...THIS HURRICANE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 26.9N 79.3W 90 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 27.2N 80.4W 95 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 27.8N 81.9W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 06/0600Z 29.0N 84.0W 60 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 86.0W 60 KT...MOVING INLAND 72HR VT 07/1800Z 32.5N 89.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 08/1800Z 35.7N 88.8W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 09/1800Z 41.0N 85.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
