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| #7513 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 04.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004 U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 960 MB. THE HURRICANE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY WITH AN WELL DEFINED EYEWALL ABOUT 45 N MI ACROSS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL LOOKED A LITTLE RAGGED FOR A WHILE BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME BETTER DEFINED. SO CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE SEVERAL OR MORE HOURS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM WATERS BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/04. THE PRIMARY GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 12 HOURS AT 5 TO 7 KT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE INLAND IN 12 HOURS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ALREADY MOVED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY TO MARTIN COUNTY. THEREAFTER THE STEERING RIDGE SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED WILL BE WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. ALL MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OUT A LOT AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS SHOW A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW A RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF THE THESE MODELS AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 36 HOURS. THE SLOW MOTION SHOULD CAUSE FRANCES TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLE OVER LAND AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT FRANCES WILL REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER THE GULF. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 27.1N 79.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 27.3N 80.6W 80 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 06/0000Z 28.3N 82.3W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 06/1200Z 29.5N 84.1W 60 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 07/0000Z 30.7N 85.8W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 08/0000Z 33.2N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 09/0000Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 10/0000Z 40.5N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND |
