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| #7653 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 08.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED SEP 08 2004 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR IVAN CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AT 11 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA THURSDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM NORTH OF CURACAO IN THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 595 MILES... 960 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 69.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN |
