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| #7667 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:04 AM 09.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...NORTHEAST OF ARUBA IN THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 570 MILES... 915 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARUBA AND BONAIRE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA. RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 160 MPH...255 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A RARE CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 925 MB...27.31 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 925 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART |
