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| #769022 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 10.May.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 NOAA Doppler radar, surface data and visible satellite imagery indicate that Ana continues to move over land near the South Carolina-North Carolina border. Surface observations suggest that the cyclone is barely of tropical storm intensity. Since the center is expected to be over land at least through tonight, weakening to a tropical depression is likely later today. Ana is forecast to move back over the Atlantic in about 36 hours, but regeneration after that time is unlikely due to cool waters and strong shear. The global models show the system degenerating into an open trough and becoming absorbed by a large mid-latitude low over Atlantic Canada in about 60 hours. Ana appears to have turned toward the north but the forward speed continues to be quite slow, around 4 kt. The flow ahead of a broad 500 mb trough should cause Ana or its remnant to turn toward the northeast with some acceleration over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and is quite close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. Elevated water levels, high surf, and rip currents will continue to pose a threat over portions of the North and South Carolina coasts today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 34.1N 78.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 34.9N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1200Z 36.2N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/0000Z 38.2N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 41.0N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
