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| #7714 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 09.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR JAMAICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BARAHONA PENINSULA FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS EASTWARD. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE... AND CURACAO AND ALL WARNINGS FOR VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES... 695 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON FRIDAY. IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WIT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...14.5 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA |
