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| #778663 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:12 PM 15.Jun.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations indicate that the circulation associated with the low located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined since earlier today. While the circulation still appears to be somewhat elongated, the center is defined enough to consider the system a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Bill at this time. The aircraft data indicate an area of 40-45 kt winds north and east of the center, and the initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory. Given the relatively broad nature of the system, the large radius of maximum winds, and the somewhat ragged convective pattern, only a little strengthening is expected before the center reaches the coast tomorrow, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. After landfall Bill is expected to weaken to a depression after 24 hours, and the low-level circulation is forecast to dissipate by 48 hours following the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Note that the global models subsequently show the low- to mid-level remnants of Bill moving northward and then northeastward ahead of an upper trough into the southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley. The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 320/10 given the recent formation of the center. The primary steering mechanism is a mid-level anticyclone centered over the southeastern United States, which should result in Bill moving northwestward toward the Texas coast in the next 12 hours and then inland over south-central Texas. The track model guidance is in generally good agreement through landfall. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the latest model fields from the UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS models and is a little to the left of the multi-model consensus. It is important not to focus on the exact track of the center, given the large area across which heavy rains and tropical storm conditions are expected to occur. Given this forecast, a tropical storm warning has been issued for much of the middle and upper Texas coast. However, the main hazard associated with Bill and its remnants will be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flooding hazard. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 27.1N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 28.3N 95.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 29.7N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 31.5N 98.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
