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| #7830 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 10.Sep.2004) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 1500Z FRI SEP 10 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 75.1W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT.......150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 140SE 140SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 75.1W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 74.7W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.2N 76.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.3N 78.0W NEAR/OVER JAMAICA MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.2N 79.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.5N 80.2W APPROACHING CUBA MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 82.5W INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 75.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA |
