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| #7863 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:50 PM 10.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CORE OF IVAN TO NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS AS IT PASSES JAMAICA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 76.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 926 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
