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| #786888 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:05 PM 13.Jul.2015) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032015 100 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015 The small low pressure area that moved off the coast of North Carolina over the weekend has lost its frontal characteristics and acquired organized deep convection overnight. The convection, albeit primarily over the eastern semicircle of the sheared system, has persisted for more the 12 hours. Recent ASCAT data indicated that the cyclone has maximum winds of 40 to 45 kt and a well-defined circulation. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Claudette, the third tropical storm of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. Claudette is expected to be a short-lived tropical cyclone since it will be moving over much cooler waters and into an area of increasing southwesterly shear tonight. The cyclone could strengthen slightly in the very near term, but is expected to weaken later tonight and become post-tropical shortly thereafter. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate within 2 to 3 days as it accelerates northeastward. The global models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1700Z 37.4N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 38.5N 66.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 41.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 43.9N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 15/1200Z 47.2N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
