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| #786977 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 13.Jul.2015) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032015 500 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015 Claudette is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center exposed to the southwest of the main mass of deep convection. The current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt, well above the Dvorak estimates, based on the earlier scatterometer data. The numerical guidance indicates that the cyclone will be affected by vertical shear of greater than 30 kt over the next day or so, and this should prevent significant strengthening. Weakening should commence tomorrow, and the system will likely become a post-tropical cyclone in 36 hours or sooner. Both the ECMWF and GFS global models show the cyclone losing its identity in 48 hours, so the official forecast shows dissipation at that time. Claudette is beginning to accelerate and the motion estimate is now 045/15. An additional increase in forward speed is expected as the storm moves in the flow ahead of a mid-level trough near the Great Lakes. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and on the left side of the guidance envelope. This is in best agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 38.1N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 39.9N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 42.6N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 45.7N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
