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| #787114 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 14.Jul.2015) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032015 500 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015 Claudette remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the center located to the south of a new burst of deep convection that has developed overnight. Satellite intensity estimates suggest that the tropical cyclone has weakened slightly, so the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt. Claudette will be crossing the north wall of the Gulf Stream and over much colder waters this morning. The unfavorable SSTs and strong southwesterly shear should cause Claudette to lose its tropical characteristics later today. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate as it approaches or moves over Newfoundland on Wednesday. The initial motion estimate is 050/17 kt. The cyclone is expected to move between northeast and north-northeast within deep-layer southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic. The new NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory, and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 40.1N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 41.9N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 45.0N 58.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 15/1800Z 48.0N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
