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| #787177 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 14.Jul.2015) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032015 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015 Claudette's cloud pattern is rapidly becoming less organized. Deep convection continues to burst northeast of the low-level center, with the latter becoming increasingly exposed and diffuse this morning. The cyclone's current structure is symptomatic of deep layer of southwesterly shear of over 30 kt, as diagnosed by SHIPS model analyses. Dvorak classifications were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35 kt from SAB and TAFB at 1200 UTC, respectively. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, at the higher end of these estimates due to the storm's increasing forward speed. Claudette has already passed the northern wall of the Gulf Stream and will be moving over sea surface temperatures below 20 deg C soon. Cooler waters, a much more stable and drier atmosphere, and continued strong southwesterly shear should contribute to Claudette's weakening. Global models suggest that extratropical transition should occur in about 24 hours, with the system opening up into a trough shortly after that. The official intensity forecast is in excellent agreement with the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 050/18. Prior to dissipation tomorrow, Claudette's track should turn north-northeastward with some additional acceleration while it rotates around large deep-layer cyclone over eastern Canada. The latest track forecast has changed little from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 41.4N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 43.6N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 46.7N 56.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain |
