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| #7886 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:02 AM 11.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN POUNDING JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH... AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN FLORIDA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. THE EYE HAS WOBBLED TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE ON FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WOBBLE TOWARD THE WEST APPEARS TO HAVE KEPT THE EYE AND VERY STRONGEST WINDS JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND...BUT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING JAMAICA AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
