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| #7930 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 11.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004 ...EYE OF THE HURRICANE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM JAMAICA...STRONG WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ADJUSTED THEIR WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE EYE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA AND 190 MILES...305 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. IVAN HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.32 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 FEET... LOCALLY HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N... 78.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 925 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
