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| #7953 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:44 PM 11.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004 ...IVAN REGAINS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE STRENGTH...HEADING TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER... ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
