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| #797103 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 21.Aug.2015) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015 Danny has continued to strengthen during the past several hours. The small eye has become better defined, and it is now embedded in a circular central dense overcast. In addition, the ragged outer banding has increased in coverage and now surrounds the central convection. The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. It is notable that experimental multispectral METEOSAT imagery suggests that low-level moisture has wrapped around the cyclone and pushed the drier air farther away. This could be helping both the intensification and the increase in outer banding. The initial motion is 290/9. The subtropical ridge north of Danny remains weaker than normal due to a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic. This trough is expected to lift northward in a couple of days, allowing the ridge to build westward and strengthen. This evolution should cause Danny to turn more westward with some increase in forward speed. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and forecasts Danny to be near the Leeward Islands in about 72 hours, near Puerto Rico in about 96 hours, and near Hispaniola in about 120 hours. The new forecast track, which is in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models, lies close to the previous forecast through 96 hours and a little to the north of the previous forecast at 120 hours. Danny is currently in an environment of light vertical wind shear. However, it is about to encounter increasing upper-level southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the northeastern Caribbean, with the shear forecast to increase to over 20 kt by 96 hours. This, combined with the abundant dry air remaining along the forecast track, should cause Danny to weaken below hurricane strength as it approaches the Caribbean islands. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the intensity consensus through 96 hours. After that, it is weaker than most of the guidance due to the expected interaction with land. A NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research mission in and around Danny this afternoon, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate Danny Saturday afternoon. These data will provide a better assessment of the intensity and structure of the hurricane. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 14.0N 48.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 14.5N 49.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 15.1N 51.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.5N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 17.0N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 19.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven |
