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| #797173 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 21.Aug.2015) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015 ...DANNY LIKELY AT PEAK INTENSITY... ...FORECAST TO WEAKEN STARTING TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 49.1W ABOUT 860 MI...1390 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Danny. Tropical storm watches may be required for portions of the Leeward Islands on Saturday. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danny was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 49.1 West. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is expected on Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. This makes Danny a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Danny is moving into an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny remains a very small tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier data from the NOAA aircraft is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
