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| #797373 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:38 PM 22.Aug.2015) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DANNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 200 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2015 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING DANNY... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 52.4W ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of France has issued a tropical storm watch for Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danny was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 52.4 West. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed are expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Danny is expected to be near the Leeward Islands by Sunday night or Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to weaken below hurricane strength before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). U. S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are currently enroute to investigate Danny. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over the Leeward Islands through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
