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| #797424 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 22.Aug.2015) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2015 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT DANNY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 53.3W ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the U. S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Danny. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight or Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danny was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 53.3 West. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Danny is expected to be near the Leeward Islands by Sunday night or Monday morning. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to be at tropical storm strength when it reaches the Leeward Islands. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The latest minimum central pressure extrapolated from NOAA aircraft data is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over the Leeward Islands through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
