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| #797504 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 22.Aug.2015) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 54.7W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 54.7W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 54.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.9N 56.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.4N 59.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.7N 64.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.5N 69.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 21.7N 73.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 54.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
