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| #797700 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 23.Aug.2015) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015 Danny has become decidedly less organized since earlier today. The low-level circulation center became exposed to the southwest of the main area of deep convection, and that deep convection has become rather ragged-looking. The current intensity estimate is set to 35 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. This is also consistent with recent data buoy observations. Danny should remain in an environment of moderately strong shear and dry mid-tropospheric air for the next few days. These unfavorable factors should cause weakening to a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, and dissipation thereafter. If the global models are correct, however, Danny could dissipate sooner than shown here. Danny continues to move a little south of the previously estimated track, and the initial motion estimate is 260/14. This is likely due to the fact that it is becoming a shallow circulation. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Danny should provide a continued westward or a little north of westward motion for the next 72 hours or so. The track models have shifted even a little farther to the south on this cycle, so the official forecast is adjusted accordingly. This is close to the dynamical model consensus. Although tropical storm watches or warnings are not in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy, the government of France has issued a warning for heavy rain and strong winds for those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.6N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.8N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.2N 63.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 16.6N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 17.2N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 18.6N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
