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| #798413 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 26.Aug.2015) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015 ...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 57.6W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Erika. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for a portion of the Dominican Republic later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 57.6 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just north of north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) primarily to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic on Friday. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
