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| #798712 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 27.Aug.2015) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 ...ERIKA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 63.3W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has extended the Tropical Storm Watch westward along the north coast of the Dominican Republic to the border of Haiti. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border of Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 63.3 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today, move near or north of Puerto Rico tonight, and pass north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands through early this afternoon, and reach the Virgin Islands later today and Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands through early this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the watch area in the Dominican Republic on Friday and the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and the Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeast Bahamas through Saturday. Dominica reported nearly 9 inches of rainfall overnight, with significant flooding occurring on the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
