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| #798788 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 27.Aug.2015) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 ...ERIKA PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 64.0W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla Saona. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla Saona A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 64.0 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands this evening, move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands for the next few hours, and reach the Virgin Islands this evening and Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the watch area in the Dominican Republic on Friday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
