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| #7988 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 12.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN THREATENS GRAND CAYMAN... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER...OR VERY NEAR...GRAND CAYMAN BY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF IVAN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 80.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 918 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
