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| #798899 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 28.Aug.2015) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN STILL AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 67.7W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coast of the Dominican Republic west of Isla Saona. The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 67.7 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican Republic today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast today as Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) to the north and east of the center. A Weatherflow station in Las Mareas, Puerto Rico, recently reported a wind of 52 mph (84 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions currently affecting the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will continue for the next several hours before subsiding later today. Tropical storm conditions will spread across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause life- threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
