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| #798988 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:41 PM 28.Aug.2015) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 200 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 ...ERIKA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 70.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erika has been moving westward near 18 mph (30 km/h) for the past several hours. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to being later this afternoon or tonight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast this afternoon and tonight as Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) to the east of the center. Punta Cana at the eastern end of the Dominican Republic has been reporting wind gusts of 40 mph (64 km/h) for the past few hours. The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across Haiti this afternoon, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later this afternoon and tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for Puerto Rico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
