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| #799045 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 28.Aug.2015) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 ...ERIKA MOVING INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 71.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of Hispaniola. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was estimated near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 71.2 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected tonight, with this motion continuing with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next several hours, and be near the southeastern Bahamas or eastern Cuba on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Erika is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday. There is a possibility that Erika could dissipate to a trough of low pressure during or after its passage over Hispaniola. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure, based on observations from the Dominican Republic, is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across Haiti this evening, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this evening and tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba on Saturday and in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for Puerto Rico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
