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| #799084 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:44 PM 28.Aug.2015) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 ...ERIKA DUMPING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 72.0 ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of Hispaniola. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ The broad circulation of Erika is gradually moving inland over Haiti, and at 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was estimated near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 72.0 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected tonight, with this motion continuing with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over western Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave early Saturday, and will be near extreme eastern Cuba or the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are now 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Erika is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday, but there is a good possibility that Erika could even degenerate into a trough of low pressure while it is moving over the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. Barahona in the western portion of the Dominican Republic is reporting gusts to 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure, based on observations from the Dominican Republic and Haiti, is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican Republic are gradually subsiding. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba on Saturday and in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. An additional 1 to 2 inches are expected in Puerto Rico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
