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| #799132 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:35 AM 29.Aug.2015) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 200 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 ...ERIKA STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HAITI... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 73.9W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed for these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was estimated near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 73.9 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near eastern Cuba this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Erika could become a tropical depression later today. It is also possible that Erika could degenerate into a trough of low pressure later today while it moves over the high terrain of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican Republic are gradually subsiding. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Haiti, and spread into the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas during the next few hours, and the central Bahamas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba today and in the northwestern Bahamas by tonight. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, the outer bands of Erika are also expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
