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| #799169 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 29.Aug.2015) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 75.1W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 75.1W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 77.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.3N 80.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N 82.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.3N 83.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 31.0N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 75.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
