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| #799201 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:32 AM 29.Aug.2015) TCDAT5 REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Surface observations from Cuba, satellite imagery, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erika has degenerated into a trough of low pressure, with the remnants of the center located near the north coast of eastern Cuba. Winds of near 30 kt are occurring to the north and east of the center, and these conditions will likely continue through at least this afternoon. The remnants are expected to move west-northwestward near the northern coast of central and eastern Cuba for the next 12 to 24 hours and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours. After that time, a more northward motion is expected over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear could relax by the time the system reachs the Gulf of Mexico, and there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate. Regardless of regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty winds should spread across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida during the next couple of days. This will be the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs. Additional information can be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast office products issued by the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1330Z 21.5N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
