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| #799845 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 31.Aug.2015) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 Fred likely peaked in intensity this morning. Microwave data received since the previous advisory shows that the eye has become open over the southern semicircle, however, the center remains embedded in an area of cloud top temperatures below -70C. Although Dvorak T-numbers have changed little since the previous advisory, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 70 kt, based on the degraded inner-core structure. The environment ahead of Fred is expected to become increasingly hostile with marginal sea surface temperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and less favorable thermodynamic conditions. As a result, steady weakening is predicted. Since Fred is a small tropical cyclone, it is likely to succumb to the shear faster than indicated by the statistical guidance, and the NHC forecast is slightly lower than the SHIPS/LGEM models. Despite warmer SSTs along the forecast track at days 4 and 5, the shear and dry mid-level air are likely to cause Fred to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 310/10 kt. The center of Fred will pass near or over the northwestern Cape Verde Islands through early tonight. A turn toward the west-northwestward is expected on Tuesday as the subtropical ridge to the north of Fred builds westward. A west-northwestward heading should then continue during the remainder of the forecast period. The GFS and ECMWF models remain on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the NHC forecast is near a consensus of these typically reliable models. The NHC forecast at the long-range leans a bit closer to the ECMWF, which shows a weaker Fred moving more westward. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 17.2N 24.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 18.2N 25.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 19.2N 27.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 20.1N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 20.8N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 22.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 23.2N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 25.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
