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| #799933 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 31.Aug.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 Fred's inner-core deep convection has collapsed, and what thunderstorm activity remains is very ragged in appearance. Although the convection may make somewhat of a comeback on the diurnal maximum tomorrow morning, the current degradation of the cloud pattern necessitates downgrading the system to a tropical storm. The current intensity estimate is a rather uncertain 60 kt. As Fred moves away from the Cape Verde Islands, the environment ahead becomes increasingly unfavorable with increasing shear, progressively drier mid-level air and increased stability. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. Given the storm's current appearance and the hostile future environment, however, Fred may weaken faster than indicated here. The center has become difficult to track, and my best guess of the initial motion is 310/10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Fred is forecast to build gradually westward. This should cause the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest. A more westward track with time is also consistent with Fred becoming a shallower cyclone steered more by the low-level flow. The official forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope and is mostly a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions. This is also very similar to the previous NHC track forecast. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.9N 25.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 20.5N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 21.1N 31.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 22.2N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 25.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch |
