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| #800028 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 01.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 Fred continues to quickly weaken this morning as the associated deep convection near the center has decreased in coverage and become less organized. The center has also become exposed to the south of the remaining shower and thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt, which is based on an 1100 UTC ASCAT pass that showed maximum winds of around 40 kt. Additional weakening is predicted during the next few days while Fred moves into a more hostile environment of increasing southwesterly shear, mid-level dry air, and marginal sea surface temperatures. The tropical cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in 36 to 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days, but this could occur sooner. Fred is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to be steered west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. The western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken after 72 hours when a large mid- to upper-level trough begins to deepen over the central Atlantic. This should cause the remnant low to turn northwestward late in the forecast period. The models that keep Fred stronger show the northwestward turn occurring much sooner than the NHC forecast. The NHC track closely follows the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models that all take a weaker Fred more westward before turning it northwestward late in the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 18.3N 27.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 19.0N 28.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 19.8N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 20.5N 31.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 21.1N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 22.8N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 24.4N 38.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 26.5N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
