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| #800153 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 01.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 The deep convection near the center of Fred has decreased during the past few hours, with the low-level center now partially exposed to the west of the convection. An ASCAT-B overpass near 0000 UTC probed the western side of the circulation and showed 40-kt winds near the center. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The initial motion estimate is now 295/11. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Fred should continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter, the western portion of the ridge is expected to weaken when a trough deepens over the central Atlantic. This evolution should steer Fred or its remnants generally northwestward. There has been little change in the forecast guidance since the last advisory. Based on this, the new forecast track is an update of the previous track through 72 hours and lies just north of the consensus models. After 72 hours, the track has been adjusted westward, but still lies to the east of the center of the guidance envelope as a compromise between the current guidance and the previous forecast. The intensity forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Fred is over sea surface temperatures of about 26 deg C and is about to encounter strong westerly vertical wind shear. In addition, the cyclone is entraining a drier and more stable air mass. This combination should cause weakening over the next several days. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it calls for Fred to weaken to a depression in 30 to 36 hours and degenerate into a remnant low after 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 19.4N 29.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 19.8N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 20.4N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 21.0N 33.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 21.4N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 22.0N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 23.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z 25.0N 43.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven |
