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| #800254 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 02.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015 Fred has been without deep convection for about 12 hours and consists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The circulation remains fairly strong and the initial wind speed is maintained at 40 kt, which is in agreement with data from a recent ASCAT overpass. If organized deep convection does not return very soon, which appears unlikely, Fred will become a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon. Strong westerly shear, marginal sea surface temperatures, and dry mid-level air should cause the circulation to gradually spin down during the next few days. Very late in the forecast period, the remnant low could be over slightly warmer SSTs and in an area of lower shear. Redevelopment appears unlikely, however, due to a dry and stable air mass over the east-central Atlantic. Fred is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt. The forecast calls for the cyclone to continue on a west-northwestward heading over the next 72 hours to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. After that time, the remnant low is predicted to turn turn northwestward, and then north-northwestward while it moves around the western periphery of a low-level high pressure area centered south of the Azores. The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest ECMWF, which is along the southern edge of the model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.8N 30.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 20.2N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 03/1200Z 20.9N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0000Z 21.5N 35.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 21.9N 36.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 22.7N 39.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 24.2N 41.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 26.5N 42.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
